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Posted at 12:00 PM EST

Boston -1½ +185 over TORONTO

6:37 PM EST. What do we do when we have two weak starters going up against one another in a hitter’s park when the total is 11½? Play the value of course and take the underdog on the reverse line run because it has a very good chance of cashing. The Blue Jays hit bombs but they’re very reliant on that, as their collective On Base Average is one of the league’s worst. There is nothing more to this wager, as it is a true case of playing the strong value. If Toronto was the underdog here, we would be playing them. Here is the tale of the tape for those interested:

Kyle Hart (LHP - BOS) is a 27-year-old lefty who was a 19th round pick in 2016 out of Indiana University. He's posted respectable numbers throughout his minor league career, including a 3.13 ERA, 7.8 K’s/9, and 3.1 BB’s/9. Standing tall at 6-5, his fastball sits right around the 90 mph mark and he often pitches to contact. His other choices include a mid-80s cutter and a low-80s slider, both of which project as average offerings, and then two (as of now) fringe-average pitches: a change and a curve that both hover in the upper 70s. The pro is that he's a lefty with decent control, but the main con would be the fact that none of his pitches are of the plus variety, and thus he may have trouble putting away big league hitters without a solid defense behind him. If he ends up having that luxury then Hart could eventually fill a spot in the back of a rotation, but it's more likely that he's ultimately a bullpen swingman. He’s started two games this year and the results have been ugly but his seven walks in six innings is completely uncharacteristic. Now that his feet are wet, he’ll be encouraged to be more aggressive and throw strikes after his first two big-league starts.

Chase Anderson (RHP - TOR) has not made it through four innings in any of his three starts this season. Not surprisingly, each of his last two starts have resulted in what we refer to as disasters (despite the results) because he couldn’t complete the fourth inning. Don't be fooled by his 2.79 ERA as that has been fueled by a 91% strand rate. Underneath the hood is a not too promising 5.24 xERA. Anderson has a 45% first-pitch strike rate and a weak 8% swing and miss rate. One or both of these pitchers will get blown up and we’ll hope it’s Anderson.

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