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Posted at 1:00 PM EST.

Kansas City +180 over ST. LOUIS

8:15 PM EST. Matt Harvey (RHP - KC) went 3-5 with a 7.09 ERA in 60 innings for the Angels last year. He signed a one-year, $11 million deal last season but was released in July after 12 starts. Dude was looking for work and on July 28th, the Royals signed him to a minor-league deal. A solid 2018 finish (128 IP for Cinci) offered some hope for 2019, but the skills fell apart, his velo dropped, and another injury cropped up. Persistent HR issues exacerbated his problems. Both xHR/F and xWHIP said it was all deserved, too. 

Matt Harvey was called up last week to make his first start with the Royals. He only lasted three full innings against the Reds after surrendering two jacks and three runs, however, there are some positives to take away. First, he struck out four with a supported 13% swing and miss rate. His velocity was up to an average of 93 MPH and he had a 67% first-pitch strike rate.

Here’s what we know for sure. Harvey signed for 575K this year. In this day and age, that’s equivalent to being a dishwasher at a not so busy restaurant. He’s 31 years old and could have retired but he’s a fierce competitor that wants to show all the teams that passed on him that he’s not dead yet. He has a chip on his shoulder the size of Missouri, which has to count for something. Matt Harvey paid his dues by reporting to the Royals “alternate site”. Truth is he may have overpaid his dues and with his desire to succeed and with an encouraging first start behind him, we’re not going to count him out. That’s the skinny on Harvey but more importantly, Adam Wainwright (RHP - ST. L) cannot be priced like he’s Jacob deGrom. 

Wainwright rebounded with a competent full season in 2019 after injury-plagued years. Value results from accumulating, however; not only are his strikeout rate and control subpar, but Ball% and swing and miss rate are consistent with even weaker skills. Wainwright’s solid groundball rate sets a performance floor, but struggles vL are worrisome (5.64 ERA, 1.86 WHIP vL) and the Royals could have six left-handed bats in the lineup today. With injury history, he's a high-risk to repeat what he did last year and he’s without upside at this absurd price. We'll gamble for sure on this one.

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