Pinnacle +186 BET365 +175 SportsInteraction +180 5DIMES +182 CoolBet +180

Posted at 1:00 PM EST.

SAN FRANCISCO +186 over L.A. Dodgers

9:45 PM EST. You may have noticed that both the Yankees and Dodgers are seldom on our slate because our plan was to just stay away from them for the most part. Although we’re in the value business first, and the Yanks and Dodgers are overvalued daily, they are still two juggernauts that win often. We thought it might be better to just ignore them completely but this is one we cannot. First, the Giants/Dodgers are a bitter rivalry that brings out the best in the underdog, and secondly, the Giants have been a very tough out all year and it’s no fluke. The Giants have won six in a row. 

It’s been a rough go of it for Johnny Cueto (RHP - SF) since his terrific 2016 season, as he battled blisters and a flexor strain in 2017 and was limited to just 53 frames in 2018 before succumbing to August Tommy John surgery that same year. He returned to MLB action for four September 2019 outings and was uncharacteristically wild, walking nine batters in 16 innings. All of that has factored into his current value but could this be a buying opportunity? We think it might be. Cueto is gaining his strength back. In his last start, he walked one and struck out eight in six innings. His groundball rate, velocity and first-pitch strikes are all trending the right way but all this market sees is the Dodgers on the other side of his 4.67 ERA. Now in his mid-30s (34), he’s an intriguing low-cost flyer. 

Julio Urías (LHP - LA) is looking like he is living up to his potential, as he is 2-0 with a 2.74 ERA through five starts. However a closer look reveals that he has been helped by a 81% strand rate. His 4.85 xERA worse than Cueto's xERA, Back on August 7, Urias took on the Giants in a weak effort. The opposing Giants have mashed left-handed pitching with a strong .858 OPS. Once again, the market will react to a bunch of meaningless surface stats and that provides us with an opportunity to get in on the biggest overlay on the board. 

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