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Posted at 12:00 PM EST

Detroit -1½ +340 over CLEVELAND

1:10 PM EST. We wrote about Detroit’s Tarik Skubal (LHP - DET) last week when he made his major league debut against the White Sox. He didn’t fare well in that start but one can never put emphasis on one start, especially a debut and it was against the hottest hitting team in the league. Skubal takes a big step down in class when facing the 30th ranked (dead last) offense in the majors. For those that missed our introduction to Skubal, here it is again:

The Tigers have three big time prospects in Matt Manning, Casey Mize and Skubal. Scouts think Skubal will wind up being the best of them all. The 6'3", 215-pound lefty faced Double-A Erie in 2019, and if Mize dominated that league, Skubal left a burning crater where the league used to be. Although Skubal’s control was average, his strikeout rate was 17.4 K’s/9 and batters only hit .168 against him. In his two-year minor league career where he has zoomed up five levels, he has registered an average of 13.2 K’s/9, 2.5 BB’s/9 and a 0.98 WHIP.

Skubal brings a four-pitch mix to his dominance, led by his mid-to-upper 90s fastball. But every one of his pitches is average or better, and he is skilled at mixing them to deceive the batters. In addition to his fastball, he has a low-80s curve, a mid-80s change-up, and an upper-80s slider. He will mix and match as needed, and with his good control he puts the ball where he wants. Double-A batters had no chance, and so while major league batters will obviously be better, Skubal has the skills and pitches to succeed. When you have control over four pitches already, maybe you don't need Triple-A time. In any case, here he is and we’ll give him another shot here.

Carlos Carrasco is a great pitcher when he’s healthy. Dude resembled his former rotation anchor self in his first start of 2020. He had a 10/1 K/BB in 6 innings in that start, skills that were supported by an elite array of command sub-indicators: 18.4% swing and miss rate, 83% first-pitch strikes%, 29% ball%. Carrasco then went on to pitch six innings in his two subsequent starts against Minnesota and Cincinnati, respectively. However, he has pitched just 4.1 innings in both of his last two starts. He’s had a history of injuries and last year a leukemia diagnosis put everything in perspective, as he missed three months before his inspirational return in September. Are we seeing signs of fatigue? It sure looks like it, as his first-pitch strike rate has dropped to just 52% over his last three starts. He has walked 12 batters over his last 14 frames. There is no way to tell if Carrasco’s arm is fatigued but missing the plate often is a sure sign that something isn’t right.

Detroit is +210 on the money line but we’re going for the kill here and will play Detroit on the reverse run line because if Carrasco isn’t right and Skubal is, this ticket can absolutely cash. Cleveland’s bottom ranked offense also makes this ticket a cashable one.

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