Pinnacle -105 BET365 -110 SportsInteraction -110 5DIMES -110 Coolbet -110

Posted at 12:00 PM EST

PHILADELPHIA -105 over Atlanta

7:10 PM EST. Excuse us for not understanding this. To try and understand it, we’ll write it out. Atlanta is at home. They are 16-11 and in first place in the NL East and they are 10-3 in their own barn. Philadelphia is dead last in the NL East, they’re 9-14 overall and they have dropped five in a row. Advantage Atlanta in all of the above, not by a little but by a lot.

Next we turn to the starters to try and understand why Philadelphia is favored because so far, they shouldn’t be. Josh Tomlin (LHP - ATL) versus Zach Eflin (RHP - PHI). The Braves have a top-five OPS in 2020. In 2019, Eflin didn't have much success against Atlanta, as he had a 6.33 xERA and 2.02 WHIP in 16 innings. This year, Eflin has a 5.14 ERA and was destroyed in his last start by Boston, when the Red Sox knocked him out in the 4th inning. After profiling Eflin, we’re still not understanding why Atlanta isn’t -160 here. In fact, Atlanta is the pooch.

Josh Tomlin has 18 K’s in 15 innings to go along with just four walks issued. He has a 2.35 ERA, a 3.13 xERA and a 73% first-pitch strike rate. Have we written anything that suggests this game should be evenly priced? Atlanta has BIG advantages everywhere --starter, offense, current form, home-field, won/loss record, public appeal and yet here we are for the Sunday night isolated ESPN game and Philadelphia is favored. WTF is that?!?!?!?!?!

We recognize that Philadelphia cannot be and should not be favored here but we also recognize that the sportsbooks are on their knees begging you folks to unload on the Braves. This is what we refer to as “the sucker bet of the day”. Atlanta will be favored by game time and that’s when we’ll pull the trigger on the Phillies because the line says so. You have been warned.

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