Boston @ BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE +100 over Boston

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Posted at 11:00 AM EST

BALTIMORE +100 over Boston

7:35 PM EST. Martin Perez (LHP - BOS) favored over Alex Cobb (RHP - BAL) in Baltimore? That can’t be. Perez cannot throw strikes. Dude has walked 14 and struck out 17 in 24 innings. In his last start, Perez walked three and struck out one. He has a weak 7.9% swing and miss rate and a weak batted ball profile of 34%/26%/40% groundballs/line-drives/fly-balls. Last season, Perez pitched for the Twins. The Twinkies tried their best to turn Perez into a more successful starting pitcher, and while their changes were effective, the results were short-lived and not as meaningful as they were hoping for. The Red Sox will try to pick up where the Twins left off, but at this point, there's very little in Perez's skill history to make him worthy of further speculation. His xERA last start was 10.28. His overall xERA over his last 20 starts, which includes five starts this year is 5.79.

Alex Cobb has a 3.76/3.77 ERA/xERA split. He has walked nine and struck out 21 in 26 frames with an 11% swing and miss rate. He also has an elite groundball rate of 60%. In his last start, Cobb went seven full innings. Cobb suffered through groin, back, and hip injuries last season, the last of which required season-ending surgery. He appears to be getting his strength back and he’s also been very effective in this year’s small sample. Still, numbers do not lie in baseball and under the hood, Baltimore’s starter is the superior pitcher. Boston is not good enough to overcome their weak starters like years past and therefore they should not be favored in this spot. Of course the Red Sox can win but the value is on the dog.

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Our Pick

BALTIMORE +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110