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Posted at 12:00 PM EST

White Sox -111 over Cubs

8:15 PM EST. These are two starters that we have targeted as fades but Jon Lester (LHP - CHC) is the much bigger fade and we now get the South Side at a bargain price. More on Lester in a minute. 

Dallas Keuchel (LHP - CHW) may have a 3.07 ERA, but his velocity (87.4 mph) is the lowest of his career, and his 1.8 BB’s/9 rate does not jibe with his career-worst 47% first-pitch strike rate through five starts. The Cubs have a 12% walk rate as a team, and could put his control to the test but Keuchel has been getting everyone to swing at pitches outside the zone. Perhaps they see pitches coming at a speed they believe they can whack and get deceived into swinging at it. Whatever the case may be, it is what it is and Keuchel is getting outs one after the other. His groundball rate remains off the charts at 58% so when guys do get on, they are often wiped out by a double-play. 

With no offense directed at anyone, we don’t believe this market understands how truly awful Jon Lester is. Lester may have a 2.74 ERA, but it's been built on luck (20% hit rate, 79% strand rate, 10% HR/F); his xERA is 5.85 but perhaps the most telling story is that he's been feasting on weak opponents: Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Milwaukee. That ends here, as the South Side will be the toughest lineup he's faced this season by a wide margin. The White Sox lead MLB in OPS against southpaws (.930 OPS), so they seem like a solid bet to bring Lester’s good fortune to a close. Lester’s 4.9% swing and miss rate assures us that he’s going to need an abundance of more good luck to navigate through the White Sox’ strong nine. Spot the cheap price or spot the -1½ runs. We’ll choose the former only because the value is so great.

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