Pinnacle +104 BET365 -105 SportsInteraction -105 5DIMES+100 Coolbet -101

Posted at 12:00 PM EST

SAN FRANCISCO +104 over Arizona

9:45 PM EST. Logan Webb (RHP - SF) was the Giants 5th best pitching prospect before the 2019 season but has since moved up. He spent the bulk of last season in Double-A and then the majors, almost completely bypassing Triple-A. His results in San Francisco weren't great, but they weren't terrible, either, especially considering the quick movement between levels in 2019. Webb has two above-average pitches: a heavy fastball and a wipeout slider. An adequate changeup shows hitters another speed, and for his career he sports a rate of 8.2 K’s/9, 3 BB’s/9, and an attractive 3.36 ERA. Webb was a fourth round high school pick in the 2014 draft, so while he's been around for awhile, he's still just 23 years old. In 20 frames thus far covering five starts, Webb has struck out 18 but has walked 11. However, his 68% first-pitch strike rate suggests the walks will come down as he gets more confidence in his ability to put away hitters at this level. 

There was some buzz surrounding the mechanical adjustments Robbie Ray (LHP - ARI) made heading into 2020, but the early returns have not been good. Through his first five starts, he has walked 20 and allowed an ugly seven jacks in 22 innings. Bad luck has been a small factor, but this is still a volatile skill set. 

Wildness remains a major issue for Ray and his horrid first pitch strike rate and 46% Ball% suggest there is no light at the end of the tunnel. Home runs continue to be a problem. He has typically allowed lots of hard contact, though never at the exceedingly high rate that he has in 2020 (the MLB average hard hit % is 35%), and a spike in fly-ball rate to 63% (!) has exacerbated the situation.  The wide ERA/xERA of 8.59/6.88 gap indicates a touch of bad luck, but that xERA is horrid. Ray’s breakout 2017 campaign seems like a distant memory at this point, as he has since posted a 4.51/6.22 ERA/xERA split with 5 BB’s/9 and 1.49 WHIP in 315 innings. The strikeouts give him some value, but his inconsistency, abysmal control, and propensity for surrendering hard contact make for a wild ride. Until Ray can address his main weaknesses, the risk-averse should avoid him. Frankly, it’s incorrect that he and the Snakes are the chalk here.

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