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Posted at 12:15 PM EST.

 MIAMI +130 over Milwaukee

1:10 PM EST. Unheralded late-bloomer Caleb Smith (LHP - MIL), finally turned his plus swing and miss stuff into an elite strikeout rate, during his MLB rookie season no less. That was last year and this year he is even better. Smith has 156 K’s in 134 frames. Caleb Smith was outstanding in his last outing against the Royals, allowing no earned runs in 6 innings with an 8/2 K/BB split and now he’ll face the Brewers minus Christian Yelich. As far as devastating blows go, Yelich’s injury is as big a blow as any. Dude was an MVP plus. He’s the one guy in that Brewers lineup that you never wanted to see come to bat if you wagered against the Crew. The Brewers also have a crucial series on deck with the Cardinals starting tomorrow. 

Gio Gonzalez (LHP - MIL) has been horrible over the past month, posting a 5.82 ERA that is fully supported by a 6.18 xERA. Gonzalez has walked 18 batters over his past 22 innings to go along with his 7% swing & miss rate. We understand that he has a juicy matchup against the Marlins in Miami, where they have only a .680 home OPS and a .686 OPS against LHP but Gonzalez has pitched so poorly recently that he cannot be trusted to spot a price even against the Fish. On getaway day, the Crew may mentally be in St. Louis already. 

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