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Posted at 10:10 AM EST.

10:10 PM EST. Obviously the Cubbies are a better team than the Padres, which is why they are favored here but it’s not warranted. This should be the line if the starting pitchers were equal but they’re not and it’s for that reason that the Padres are a bargain here. 

Cole Hamels (LHP - CHC) has been lost since returning from his oblique injury which kept him out all July. With a decrease in velocity, hitting more bats, yielding more fly balls, throwing fewer strikes, and walking more batters, Hamels has logged a 7.12 ERA/6.53 xERA over his last seven starts. The Friars have been rock solid against southpaws all season long.

Chris Paddack (RHP - SD) has fanned 16 while allowing one run over his last two starts. Paddack has been one of the top rookie pitchers in the league throughout the season, combining pinpoint control with the ability to miss bats and limit hard contact. He was a wickedly good BB/K split of 29/137 over 130 innings. His 13% swing and miss rate supports his strikeouts. Paddack and the Padres and very worthy of a look here against the banged-up Cubs, a club which owns a mere .699 road OPS over the second half.

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