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Posted at 3:00 PM EST.

7:10 PM EST. It sucks having to recommend any team named Miami today but the value here is too great to pass up on. You see, the Brewers just tightened the race in the NL Central by sweeping the Cubs and moving to within two games of Chicago for the Wild Card. The weekend set had a playoff-like atmosphere and it was crucial that Milwaukee win all three and they did just that. There aren’t too many letdown spots in baseball but if there are any, this would be it, as the Crew go from playing to a packed house against the Cubs to an empty stadium in Miami. Milwaukee is also six games under .500 on the road. The role of the spoiler is one these also rans relish playing in.

Robert Dugger (RHP - MIA) owns a 4.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over just three games started in his career. His 5.45 xERA is troublesome, but since today’s outing is at home, there’s an avenue for Dugger to successful. Of his three starts, two have come on the road with his lone home start resulting in a pretty decent showing when he went seven full against the Reds and allowed just three hits and two earned runs. Even his last outing in Pittsburgh was better than the results. The Crews’ offense has been a bottom-tier group over the last seven days, and have had trouble with RHP on the road this season. We’ll live with whatever Dugger comes up with because this is more about taking a massively inflated price against Jordan Lyles. 

Jordan Lyles (RHP - MIL) has compiled a 2.56 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over seven games with the Brewers but it is not to be believed nor trusted. His 88% strand rate and 21% hit-rate has yielded a 4.88 xERA in the month of August. Jordan Lyles had a BABIP of .325 when he was with the Pirates for the first 4½-months of the year. His BABIP since he joined the Brewers is .229. Lyles is constantly giving up hard contact and didn’t even make it out the first inning in two of his starts earlier this year. Lyles was a +160 underdog or better in a bunch of games this year and now he’s priced like that didn’t exist and that he won those games when in fact, he got whacked in most of them. Jordan Lyles has lost games this year by scores of 11-3, 14-6, 10-4, 11-2 and 14-8 and when he does win, it’s because all those hard hit balls are at someone. At the end of the day, win or lose, Jordan Lyles priced in this range on the road is absurd.

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