Detroit @ KANSAS CITY
Detroit +197 over KANSAS CITY

Pinnacle +197 BET365 +190 SportsInteraction +195 5DIMES +190 888Sport +186

Posted at 2:00 PM EST 

8:15 PM EST. Edwin Jackson (RHP - DET), is a pitcher who has had one foot in the gutter more than once and he'll now make another start for the worst team in baseball. That makes the Tigers a tough play but we do not care. 

Yesterday, St. Louis was -315 over Dereck Rodriguez (RHP - SF) and the Giants. What has that got to do with this game? Bear with us…..Rodriguez has been up, down and all over the place this year. He’s appeared in 22 games with 13 of those coming as a starter. He’s spent time (demoted) in San Jose (Single-A) and in Sacramento (Triple-AAA). They really can’t find a suitable roll for him because his stuff is too weak to start and too weak to relieve. D-Rod has 51 K’s in 80 MLB innings this year and basically came out of nowhere with no minor league pedigree to speak of. His strikeout rate is lower-tier, and his first-pitch strike rate questions his control. Dereck Rodriguez went into last night's game with an xERA of 6.72 over his 1½-years or sevice at this level. The Giants lost last night by a final score of 1-0. If you bet St. Louis laying -315, it was a sweat not worth it. Like Rodriguez, it’s possible that Jackson will give the Tigers a chance to win and even if he Jackson gives up a bunch, maybe the Tigers bats will go off for a bit more. For instance, the Nationals and Mets played to an 11-10 final last night. It was Scherzer v deGrom. It’s baseball. 

Ty Blach of the Orioles had a 12.15 ERA going into Tampa Bay last night and he won. The point is that every game is independent of the last one and in-game variance plays a major role. Another factor to consider is that the Kansas City Royals shouldn’t be favored in this range over anyone and Jakob Junis cannot be priced like he’s Bret Saberhagen.

A very decent 2018 left the market feeling optimistic about Jakob Junis (RHP, KC) entering his age-26 season in 2019 but he outpitched his skills last year and it has caught up to him (like it always does) this year. This is a back-of-the-rotation arm priced like an ace. Junis' best pitch is his slider, and it seems he is aware of that, increasing usage of it from 30% in 2017 to 40% in 2018, and to 46% in 2019. It is his only swing-and-miss offering (15%) and it also induces a lot of weak contact. More than 40% of the balls put in play against Junis are considered "hard hit" and much of the damage comes when he throws his soft 4-seam fastball (.328 against) and his change-up (.400 against). The gap between ERA and xERA is at least partially attributable to his unfavorable hit%/strand% fortunes, but even his xERA isn't something most would want in their lineup. He consistently gives up a lot of home runs. Junis does not currently have the arsenal or the skills to be anything more than a league-average starter or a spot-starter. Basically, he’s turned into a one-pitch pitcher and if he wins here as a ridiculous -220 favorite, good for him. Did we mention that he’s pitching for Kansas City and not the Yankees? Massive overlay.

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Our Pick

Detroit +197 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.94)

San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110