Today's Free Picks for
Pinnacle +131 BET365 +130 SportsInteraction +130 5DIMES +130 888Sport +130
Posted at 11:15 AM EST
6:05 PM EST. Vince Velasquez (RHP - PHI) has bounced around between the bullpen and starting rotation this season, but for now, seems entrenched as a starter. He has had his ups and downs but mostly downs and thus becomes a decent fade target when priced in this range. Velasquez has lasted six innings or more in just two of his 17 starts, he gives up a lot of hard contact in a hitter-friendly park, and also gets into some trouble with his control. He appears to be running out of gas too, as all of his skills are trending the wrong way. Over his last five starts covering just 25 innings, Velasquez strikeout rate has dropped, his walks are up and his groundball rate has dipped from 33% overall to 29% over said five starts.
These decent non-contenders are dangerous this time of year and the Pirates qualify. There is no greater pleasure for a team not going to the playoffs to make life miserable for a team that is fighting to get in. Throw in the fact that these are in-state rivals and motivation for the Pirates is even higher.
Mitch Keller (RHP - PIT) has a 7.24 overall ERA and that’s sweet because the market will be fooled into thinking he’s easy pickings when in fact, he is not. Keller has carded a 4.70 ERA/4.14 xERA since returning to the Pittsburgh rotation on August 18. Keller has kept his walks in check while getting an uptick in his groundball rate and strikeouts in three starts since his return. He’s fresh, he has 33 K’s in 27 innings and he’s trending the right way, unlike his pitching counterpart here.
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Our Pick
Pittsburgh +131 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.62)