Chicago @ N.Y. METS
Chicago -1½ +150 over N.Y. METS

Pinnacle -1½ +149 BET365 -1½ +150 SportsInteraction -1½ +150 5DIMES -1½ +150 888Sport- 1½ +150

Posted at 3:00 PM EST 

7:10 PM EST. Marcus Stroman (RHP - MYM) has not lost since he joined the Mets four starts ago. In Stroman’s four starts, the Mets are 4-0 and it is therefore time to sell high because the results are so much better than the performance. Stroman received great run support in all four starts and that’s the only reason the Mets went 4-0. The Mets won those games 7-5, 7-6, 10-8 and 4-3. Over his last 20 innings, Stroman has walked 10 batters and his swing & miss rate last game was 2%. Dude has an elite groundball rate but he’s also been walking a tightrope with an 83% strand rate since he changed uniforms. Stroman’s xERA as a Met in his four starts is 5.18 and chances are great that he’s not going to get as much run support.

Hello Yu Darvish (RHP, CHC), the man with the filthiest stuff in the majors. Pitching for the Cubbies, Darvish priced in this range is a steal. He has been on an amazing run lately, as over his last nine starts, he owns an incredible 2.74 xERA and a 71/2 K/BB in 54 innings. He’ll face a Mets team that is laboring at the plate with two runs or less scored in three of their last four games.

Finally, there’s this: the Cubbies are 25-39 on the road. That’s in the Detroit, Baltimore, Seattle and Colorado range. The Cubbies are 44-22 at home. In the book Scorecasting, authors Tobias Moscowitz and L. Jon Wertheim calculated home winning percentages for the major American sports leagues.

NBA .605

NFL .573

NHL .557

MLB .539

Back to the Cubbies. Since 1969, the home team has won 53.9% of MLB games. In other words, the winning percentage split between home games (.5387) and road games (.4613) is .077. Entering the 2019 season, the Cubs, since 1969, had won 52.56 percent of their home games and 45.21 percent of their road games. The difference of .073 is a touch less than average. The Friendly Confines has conferred a below-average home-field advantage.

Even after getting swept by the Nationals over the weekend, the Cubs are 44-22 at home, a .667 winning percentage through Sunday. They’re 25-39, a .391 winning percentage, on the road. The difference is .276. That’s a lot — the most in the majors this year and our point is that a massive correction in their road record is long overdue. We’re not talking about the Tigers here for f**ks sake.

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Our Pick

Chicago -1½ +150 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.00)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110