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Posted at 3:00 PM EST 

8:15 PM EST. Last night we suggested that Homer Bailey cannot be -160 road favorite. If you bet Oakland and spotted -160, you didn’t have to sweat even one bead, as the A’s scored 19 runs. It does not matter what Bailey did when your offense goes off for 19 runs. That said, we’re thrilled to throw away another two units here and fade Mike Fiers again and if we lose again, so be it but this stiff cannot be a 23-1 road favorite, even against a minor league team.

Mike Fiers is all luck. The only skill he has is that he can throw strikes. His skill set is below league average but his playable 3.54 ERA is not supported by his skills, as shown by his 5.18 xERA. Fiers strikeout rate is at a career low of 5.8 K’s/9. There are relievers with much better peripherals who are close to his K total. Mike Fiers has an 80% strand rate and a .241 BABIP.

Some complete moron messaged me and suggested that strand rates are due to being able to pitch out of jams and BABIP is called “defense”. If that were true, every pitcher on Oakland would have a BABIP in the .241 range because it’s the exact same defense. Brett Anderson’s BABIP is .306, Chris Bassitt’s is .291 and Homer Bailey’s is .308. According to moron’s argument, the team plays great defense when Fiers pitches but so-so when everyone else pitches. Fiers BABIP last year was league average at .302.

Mike Fiers is having a mediocre season with poorer skills than he has displayed in recent years and now he’s priced like he’s Matt Scherzer. It’s preposterous and we’re willing to rip up another ticket. We wouldn’t lay 2-1 with Fiers even if the game was final.

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