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Posted at 11:10 AM EST 

7:05 PM EST. Sunday night baseball. The rubber game. Some people may actually watch this one. Nevertheless, the Yanks are taking back this big a price because there is a household name pitching for the Dodgers and anyone that bets the Dodgers will pay 2015 prices on Clayton Kershaw (LHP). Kershaw is not that guy anymore. Don’t get us wrong, as he’s still a top-tier pitcher but he’s not unbeatable like he once was. 

Kershaw’s velocity took a tumble in 2018 and has slipped even further in 2019. According to Statcast, he has allowed more hard contact since 2017 with his hard hit balls % rising from 26.9% to 35.4% in 2018 before receding ever so slightly to 33.9% this season. His strikeout rate has dipped to MLB average, but his swing and miss rate hints that more strikeouts could be forthcoming (9.5 xK’s/9). Kershaw’s history of elite control is impressive and there’s nothing to suggest it won’t continue. His ability to induce plenty of groundballs continues to help him avoid gopheritis and work out of jams. All we’re suggesting is that Kershaw isn’t quite as dominant as he once was.  

Domingo German (RHP - NYY) carries a 4.56 ERA in his last five games into a matchup with the Dodgers' top-five offense vs. RHP. The right-hander did not fare as well in an Aug. 20 start at Oakland, as he gave up five earned runs in 5.1 innings. However, he supports his strong strikeout rating with a 14% swing and miss rate and 9.7 K’s/9. German dealt with some blowups in July but his 24% hr/f was the primary driver of his high ERA. His skills were excellent: 10 K’s/9, 1.7 BB’s/9 43% grounders and an xERA that was almost identical to Clayton Kershaw’s over that same span. German's command sub-indicators were just as good also with a 13.8% swing & miss rate, %, 67% first-pitch strikes and 33% ball%. Big time overlay here, as the Yanks are 17-4 when German starts.

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