Colorado @ ST. LOUIS
Colorado +122 over ST. LOUIS

Pinnacle +122 BET365 +120 SportsInteraction +115  5DIMES +120 888Sport +108

Posted at 12:45 PM EST 

7:45 PM EST. Miles Mikolas (RHP - STL) was very solid in his return to the majors in 2018, but his 2019 season has been a different story, as he's struggled to the tune of a 4.30/4.52 ERA/xERA split through 25 starts. He's lost some effectiveness on his slider, which has registered a 13% swing & miss rate, down from 18% in the second half of last season. All of the batted ball data looks about the same as 2018, but after getting a little lucky with his home run per fly ball rate last year, the pendulum has swung the other way in 2019. Mikolas is certainly serviceable and consistent but what he is not is the superior pitcher in this matchup. That distinction belongs to German Marquez (RHP - COL) and it’s not even close.  

Marquez has been prone to ups-and-downs so far in 2019 but few pitchers have shown better skills. In fact, Marquez has a 2.80 xERA over his last five starts, which is the #1 mark in MLB over that span. Over his last 31 frames, Marquez has struck out 38 batters with a mere three walks issued. He also has a 51% groundball rate over that span. His overall groundball rate is 50%. The recent surge comes with full support. Marquez leans on a great slider to drive his swing and miss rate and strikeouts. He’s inducing grounders while pounding the zone to create elite control. His next step is getting us the money when he’s mistakenly billed in this price range. Dude’s xERA/skills combo at this age (24) are hard to find, no matter where he calls home. We get the better offense and better pitcher at a price here.

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Our Pick

Colorado +122 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.44)

San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110