Today's Free Picks for
Pinnacle -102 BET365 -110 SportsInteraction -111 5DIMES -108 888Sport -110
Posted at 11:30 AM EST
7:05 PM EST. Aaron Brooks is a 29-year old journeyman with a deep minor-league history. He first pitched at this level in 2015 but has never survived a full season without being sent back down. The Orioles are his fourth team since 2015. Brooks has a BB/K split of 22/61 in 78 frames with a 9% swing & miss rate, a 43% groundball rate and a 6.49/5.30 ERA/xERA split. Most of that was pitching at Oakland’s pitcher friendly venue. In his last two starts at Camden Yards, Brooks has been tagged for 14 hits and 12 runs in eight innings. He’s evenly priced here against the Royals and that makes Kansas City a great value play again.
We cannot overemphasize what a steal the Royals are here and we sure hope we get paid off on a horrible number posted by oddsmakers. Mike Montgomery (LHP - KC) was tremendous in back-to-back starts and has logged filthy stuff otherwise the last few weeks. Over his last 27 innings, Montgomery has a BB/K split of 5/26 with a skills supported 13% swing & miss rate. He also has an elite batted ball profile of 56%/17%/27% groundball/line-drive/fly-balls over that same span. In a year when favorites are in the -160 to -300 range against weak teams (Odorizzi is -174 today over the South Side, Yu Darvish is -238 over the Giants, Rick Porcello is -160 over Philly, Charlie Morton and the Rays are -291 over Seattle and the list goes on) Montgomery and the Royals are the bargain of the day by a wide, wide margin.
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Our Pick
Kansas City -102 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)