Milwaukee @ ST. LOUIS
Milwaukee -104 over ST. LOUIS

Pinnacle -104 BET365 -110 SportsInteraction -111  5DIMES -111 888Sport -112

Posted at 11:30 AM EST 

7:45 PM EST. Adam Wainwright (RHP - STL) has a solid history against Milwaukee and gets this game at Busch Stadium where he has been tough to beat. Wainwright owns a 3.50 ERA/3.57 xERA over three starts this month. He’s allowed just two earned runs over his last 18.2 innings at home but we’re not buying it. Wainwright's ERA has improved, but he still isn't missing bats. Last year's control woes weren't just a small sample aberration, as he continues to struggle getting first pitch strikes, and is walking nine percent of the batters he's facing. His fastball is once again sitting slightly below 90 mph, and his curve isn't what it used to be either. He's thrown his curve more than ever the past two seasons, but after entering 2019 with batters hitting .178 against the pitch, they are hitting .231 against it this year, and his swing and miss rate on the pitch is a career low 10%. He's keeping the ball on the ground on just over half of all balls in play against him, but is allowing a lot of hard contact. In fact, according to FanGraphs, his HardHit% of 41.3% is more than 10 points higher than his previous high water mark, so perhaps we shouldn't count on a hr/f correction. Wainwright has been better than expected so far in 2019, as he's struck out nearly a batter per inning, while his ERA and WHIP (1.33) are both lower than they've been in the past three seasons. However, his curve hasn't been effective, his weak swing and miss rate doesn't come close to supporting a 22% K%, and he's allowing far more hard contact than usual.

Adrian Houser (RHP - MIL) appears to have recaptured his mojo of late. That’s amounted to a return of his strikeout stuff coupled with getting ground balls at an elite rate while limiting hard contact. Right-leaning St. Louis has struggled this month (.701 OPS, 28th--MLB) and Houser has held RHBs to a .587 OPS to go with outstanding command. Wainwright is not legit, Houser is and the oddsmakers know it, as they have the very warm Cardinals a small price at home against the ice-cold Crew. Why? This line figures to rise so perhaps bet this one later, as the market eats up Wainwright and his stellar surface stats being a small price at home.

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Our Pick

Milwaukee -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110