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Posted at 11:30 AM EST 

10:07 PM EST. J.A. Happ (LHP - NYY) is cold, Oakland is hot and so is its starter today, Mike Fiers (RHP - OAK). The result is that we get a rare opportunity to buy low on both the Yanks and their starter for one game. Pencil us in. Indeed there is a very good chance that Happ gets whacked here, as his form has been out of whack for most of the season, save for a few weeks in May. Happ comes in with a 7.56 ERA over his last five starts and an overall ERA of 5.45. However, his BB/K split is a respectable 35/101 in 125 frames and he has respectable numbers against current A’s too. Furthermore, Happ has pitched in a slew of tough venues as of late (five of his last seven at Yankee Stadium, one at Minnesota and one at Toronto) and now gets a pitcher’s park for the first time since he pitched at Tampa Bay on July 7. In that game at the Trop, Happ went 5.1 innings and allowed three hits and one run. That said, this is not a bet on Happ. We bet against Fiers last time out, lost the wager but will "stick with it" here.

There are some pitchers you just don’t get. There are some that even offend you personally by their mere presence, though that probably has at least something to do with ones team preferences. In this writers vision of hell, Marco Estrada definitely is a sentry after several teams were flummoxed by the nothing he kept suggestively hurling at the plate. Aside from that, there are pitchers who you watch, and you are confused if not outright flabbergasted. How is this guy in the majors, much less getting anyone out? How is he pitching important games for playoff-chasing teams, when I’m sure his stuff suggests he should be quietly living out his youth in dusty, putrid nights in places like Fresno? What right does he have?

Fiers has never had great stuff, never capping 90 miles per hour on his fastball or having some sort of devastating curve. His career BB/9 is a respectable 2.7, but that’s not other-worldly. It feels like Fiers remains in the majors because no one has realized that he’s there and told him to go home. Very recently, the Oakland broadcast of the A’s-Astros game displayed the stat that Mike Fiers has the lowest batting average against when he’s behind in the count. How could that be? Powering your way from behind to success is the land of the godly, isn’t it? Being able to throw fastballs that split time, or a curve that bends light, or precision to amputate a wasp’s leg, that’s who gets out of being behind in the count. And yet, Mike Fiers……

This is not the career-norm for Fiers. Batters have slashed .290/.452./535 against him when ahead in the count for the eight years he’s been around. This year, those numbers are just .164/.379/.281, or, measured by Baseball Reference’s split-adjusted OPS+, 69 points better than the leave-average. Nice, sure, but it doesn’t make any sense. The question becomes whether Fiers is going to keep this up for the season’s last six weeks. Certainly would tell you he can’t, but then again, we’re jaded. Clearly the .164 batting average on balls in play Fiers has held hitters to when trailing in the count doesn’t suggest anything that’s sustainable. Even if you’re out there throwing a baseball that turns into a soaked sponge mid-flight .164 is low, and due to not stay that way. Incidentally, the best Clayton Kershaw result is .275, and he was a god in 2015. Certainly that plays into the angle that Fiers has been incredibly lucky when behind batters, for him to be this far out ahead of everyone over the past what, five years? 10 years? 100 years?

Baseball never really had to adhere to normal logic, which is why we bet on games and lose them. If everything was logical and no luck was involved, we would all be filthy rich. Mike Fiers has been extremely lucky and we’re going to bet that his luck runs out against the Yanks and that New York’s bullpen holds its own.

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