Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:00 PM EST
10:07 PM EST. Boy oh boy are we sorry we didn’t bet the Pirates yesterday but thought the price on them was a little short so we passed. Big mistake that we’re not going to make again today. The price on the Angels here, regardless of outcome is outrageous. Trevor Williams (RHP - PIT) is undervalued due to his ugly 5.06 ERA in 100 innings but there's some hidden upside here. Behind Williams' subpar surface stats are these above-average command sub-indicators: 10.9% swing and miss, 65% first-pitch strike, 33% ball%. Those marks are much better than the ugly ones he put up last season (7.9% swing and miss, 61% first-pitch strikes, 36% ball%). Last year he dominated. We’re not saying he’s great but we are saying he’s better than his surface stats suggest.
We thought the Angels pitching issues couldn’t get any worse, but we were wrong. Felix Pena tore his ACL covering a play at 1B, and he’s done for the season. Dillon Peters (3.20/4.93 ERA/xERA through 25 IP) took over in that game and now becomes a more permanent part of the rotation or bulk-innings reliever at least over the near-term. Griffin Canning reportedly has elbow inflammation (with no structural damage) and the Angels didn’t even know how long he was supposed to be out for. He was announced late as today’s starter but consider it more of an emergency start. Patrick Sandoval made his MLB debut last week and was awful. Andrew Heaney (shoulder inflammation) started three days ago after missing a month but right now anything involving L.A.’s rotation looks tentative. Canning is not a guy we would trust at this ridiculous price. He’s all over the map lately with nine walks in his last 17 frames to go along with a 6.28/5.99 ERA/xERA split. All of his command sub-indicators are going in the wrong direction too. The Pirates remain an undervalued team because they lose so often but as far as LIVE underdogs in this price range are concerned, it does not get much better than Pittsburgh’s dangerous offense. Big overlay here.
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Pittsburgh +151 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.02)