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Posted at 11:50 AM EST.

7:10 PM EST. Who do you trust more, the underachieving Reds at home or the underachieving Cardinals on the road? In what is essentially a 50/50 shot, there are more reasons to get behind the Cards, which is precisely what we’re doing. For one, St. Louis just took two of three from Pittsburgh in an important series while Cincinnati just lost two of three in Chicago in a huge series that could cost the Red more than just a game in the standings. You see, the Reds took the opener at Wrigley and then scored three runs in the first inning of the second game to go up 3-0 but it’s been all downhill since. The Reds would not score again in the middle game and would eventually lose it in extra innings, 4-3. Yesterday, Cincinnati scored twice and never stood a chance in a 5-2 defeat. Positive momentum after the opener in Chicago turned sour real quick for the Reds. 

Then there’s Tanner Roark (RHP - CIN), who has zero value as the chalk when he’s pitching against anyone in the NL Central. Roark has been tagged for eight jacks in his last four games and that comes as no surprise. He was prone to being taken yard last year also and it can be attributed to his weak 36%/36% ground-ball/fly-ball split.  Roark has 95 K’s in 97 frames but his history shows much weaker second halves than first. Last two years for example, Roark’s 2nd half strikeout rate and swinging strikes (9.2 K’s/9/ 11% swing & miss) vanished as quickly as it appeared. Now he’s lost his groundball lean while adding an alarming disaster starts trend. Roark’s ordinary skill set leaves him open to hit% and hr/f swings. Those swing in his favor from time to time but it’s real tough to bet on them when he’s favored. 

Dakota Hudson (RHP - STL) is an interesting Bird. We often discuss strand % luck and in that regard, Hudson has an 82% strand %, which under normal circumstances would be considered very high and very lucky. However, Hudson generates more ground-balls than strikeouts. His ground-ball rate is elite at 60%, which is currently the second-highest among all MLB pitchers with at least 70 innings. That elite ground-ball rate has been consistently strong and allows Hudson to work quickly and to keep runners from scoring. Hudson has just 73 K’s in 98 innings but he throws 94 MPH and has an improving 11% swing and miss rate. Keep your eye on this 24-year-old because his skills are trending the right way and he even looks like the NL’s version of Marcus Stroman. Atr this park, or any park for that matter, that elite ground-ball rate figures to come in handy. So, again, we ask, who do you trust more? Roark, spotting a price, who gives up fly-balls, walks and home-runs or Hudson taking back a price with his 60% ground-ball rate?  

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