Milwaukee @ ARIZONA
ARIZONA/Milwaukee over 9½

Pinnacle o9½ -101 BET365 o9½ -110 SportsInteraction o9½ -110 5DIMES o9½ -105 888Sport -114

Posted at 9:15 AM EST.

ARIZONA/Milwaukee over 9½

9:40 PM EST. Baseball is a season of peaks and valleys and after a tough stretch (valley), the Brewers are coming back to life. Milwaukee lost the opener of a three-game set against Atlanta but then scored 18 runs combined in winning the final two games. They’ll now move to this hitter’s park to play another team that’s swinging some hot sticks.

Merrill Kelly (RHP - ARI) has thrown three consecutive disaster starts on the road and while he’s been at his best at home, where he has a 3.04 ERA, it is at home where regression is more likely to occur. It’s unreasonable to compare home and away records because park factors make such a massive difference. That Kelly has been better at home than on the road is one of those flukey things that happen from time to time in this sport. Dude has the exact same stuff at home that he has on the road, which is reflected in his K-rate, strike and ball % and the use of his arsenal, percentage wise. This is a very average pitcher facing a Brewers’ squad with a road OPS right at league average that ranks 7th overall, and that have been slightly above-average against RHP.

Zach Davies (RHP - MIL) has a nice-looking 2.89 ERA, but he's been extremely lucky, as demonstrated by a 4.97 xERA and a weak overall pitching score. He'll hope to keep the good luck going against the Diamondbacks in Arizona and if he happens to get lucky again, oh well. Davies has 68 K’s in 103 innings, which puts him at the mercy of BABIP. Furthermore, he has a shaky bullpen behind him and he’ll now face a D-Backs eight that scored only eight runs in their first three games after the All-Star Break, but put up nine and 19 runs on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Davies has negative sub-scores across the board and his charmed life cannot last much longer.

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Our Pick

ARIZONA/Milwaukee over 9½ (Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110