Detroit @ CLEVELAND
Detroit +220 over CLEVELAND

Pinnacle +220 BET365 +210 SportsInteraction +215 5DIMES +215 888Sport +205

Posted at 11:50 AM EST.

7:10 PM EST. Ryan Carpenter (LHP - DET) may and probably will give up many hits and runs and get knocked out early. The 6'5", 230-pound lefty started five games for the Tigers last year and has started eight games for them this year but in reality, he’s just a body that ithe Tigers need to eat some innings. Carpenter has the potential to stay in the rotation since he has four pitches although none of those pitches are truly plus, but he can usually put them where he wants around the strike zone. He throws a low-90s fastball, plus a curve, slider and changeup, mixing those pitches around to keep the batters off balance. Still, his ERA of 8.36 sticks out in an ugly manner but his xERA is 5.31. Should he pitch to form and give up five runs, we’d be thrilled because Detroit might score more.

Zach Plesac’s (RHP - CLE) xERA of 4.91 is 0.40 points lower than Carpenter’s and frankly speaking, he’s not major-league ready. Plesac was called up after only 79 innings of combined experience at Double-A and Triple-A, and that seems to be showing in his skills. His strikeouts are down and his walks are up, and when you add in that he's a fly-ball pitcher (something that was also true in the minors), that's a bad combination. Some of his struggles have been masked by a low hit rate and slightly high strand rate, and his xERA suggests that his ERA should be nearly a full run higher. Plesac's skills have eroded even further over his last five games with a 5.61 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 4.9 BB’s/9 and a 5.58 xERA.

Detroit scored 12 runs on Sunday in Kansas City and scored another six last night against some good Tribe pitchers. They have scored 91 runs over their last 14 ball games, which is an average of more than six runs per game over that span. Many batters in the Tigers lineup are hot at the moment but Zach Plesac is priced here like he’s Sandy Koufax. Seriously, we have not seen such inflated prices on such weak pitchers in a very long time. It’s a case of the oddsmakers protecting against a market that has been feasting on favorites all year. We MUST try and take advantage of these insane prices on third-tier starters.  

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Our Pick

Detroit +220 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.40)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110