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Posted at 11:50 AM EST.

8:15 PM EST. Anthony DeSclafani (RHP - CIN) continues to underwhelm in the ERA category, but he's striking batters out at the highest rate of his career (24%) so far in 2019. His four-seamer and curve are the two pitches he's throwing more this season, and his swing & miss rate on both pitches have increased significantly from last year: the four-seamer from 6 to 11%, and his curve from 11 to 15%. Even so, his swing & miss rate doesn't quite support a 24 percent K% or 9.4 K’s/9 but he's still doing a pretty nice job of limiting the walks. Left-handed bats continue to pose major problems for DeSclafani, though at least part of this year's struggles can be attributed to an unlucky 37% hit rate. That’s the skinny on Cincinnati’s starting pitcher but frankly, we would be betting the Reds here regardless of their starter. 

This is another example of paying a premium to get behind the Cubbies. If Alec Mills (RHP - CHC) was making his season debut for Cincinnati, the Cubbies would be a -230 favorite here. Mills is a 27-year-old career minor-leaguer. Mills, a four-pitch righty of average stuff, is back up after an 18 inning stint in 2018. Originally drafted by the Royals in the 22nd round of the 2012 draft, he also got a three-game stint in the majors in 2016 and was summarily shelled. Overall, he’s made 10 appearances (two starts) at the MLB level (three in 2016, none in 2017 and seven last year) and has posted an ERA of 5.38 over that small sample covering a mere 21.1 innings.

Traded for Donnie Dewees in early 2017, Mills’ sinker tops out at 90 mph, and he can add and subtract from it and move it in and around the zone well, but it’s still a fringe-average pitch. He features two breaking balls, though the slider is the better of the two, as he has trouble finishing the curve, and rounds out the repertoire with an above-average, low-80s change, his best pitch. Tyler Chatwood beat him out for a rotation spot and now he’s priced like he’s Kyle Hendricks. If you bet Chicago today, you may win but it’s a weak bet that has a greater chance of losing. 

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