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Posted at 1:30 PM EST.

8:15 PM EST. Yesterday, we went 1-4 in MLB. The favorites overall went 13-2. What we’re seeing this year is an abundance of favorites winning at an unusually high clip and the oddsmakers are adjusting by putting out lines that are even more inflated. We cannot be influenced by results and must stick with it. The prices on some of these dogs are outrageous and we cannot be afraid to pull the trigger when things aren’t falling our way. Pittsburgh remains a great value bet from day to day and we’re not about to relent in St. Louis.

Joe Musgrove (RHP - PIT) is being fueled by a strong ERA and WHIP. After coming off his best month of the season in June (4.11 xERA), he’s started July off with a pair of very decent outings against formidable division opponents in Milwaukee and Chicago. Today he’ll face another opponent within the division in the Cardinals. The St. Louis offense sits 23rd in wRC+ against RHP and have performed about the same over the last two weeks. They also have a RHB-heavy core, which bodes well for Musgrove (.211 oBA vs RHB, .295 oBA against LHB). 

Miles Mikolas (RHP - STL) started July off with a weak effort against the Giants, and hasn’t logged anything substantial since a May 11th start against today’s opponent—the Pirates. However, the Pirates offense fares much better against RHP (105 wRC+) than they do against lefties (78 wRC+), and they’ve been a Top 3 offense over the last two weeks. Overall the ratings system is pretty accurate with Mikolas. His ERA score is average and his strikeout grade shows minimal upside (6.8 K’s/9, 10% swing & miss). 

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