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Posted at 1:30 PM EST.

7:10 PM EST. Trent Thornton (RHP - TOR) may get knocked out in the first, second or third inning or he may go six strong for all we know. There isn’t a crystal ball on the planet that can predict what this kid will do from game to game but here’s what we know. We know he can get MLB hitters out when he stays ahead in the count. We know he has 97 K’s in 94 innings and has thrived in many games this year. We also know that after a couple of rough starts in late June and early July, Thornton had a very decent outing his last time out, which could only serve to uplift him. Rookies are risky but we also know that Rick Porcello (RHP - BOS) is outrageously priced here. 

Rick Porcello has registered a disaster start in three of his last four turns at home, and has accrued a 8.05 ERA (6.36 xERA) over that stretch. In two games this year against the Jays, Porcello has a lucky 4.50 ERA but his xERA over those two games was 5.93. Overall, Porcello has 81 K’s in 100 frames with a weak 36%/26%/38% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split. His velocity is down and so is his swing and miss rate (8%). Porcello’s output continues to bounce around from season-to-season but he’s showing all the trouble signs of a burned out pitcher, which includes being taken yard often. Boston may win here but Rick Porcello cannot be priced like he’s Pedro Martinez in his prime. Jesus. 

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