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Posted at 1:30 PM EST.

8:05 PM EST. Here is another outrageous line that should be closer to a pick-em. Kyle Hendricks (RHP - CHC) has logged a pair of below average outings in his two starts back from the injured list, and will be pitching at home for the first time since June 9th. In seven games started at Wrigley Field, he’s compiled a 1.65 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 57/14% dominant start/disaster start split (5.44 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 22/44% dominant/disaster start split in nine away games). Big discrepancy there that is also an anomaly. Dude has the exact same stuff at home that he has on the road so it is reasonable to expect regression at home and improvement on the road. Hendricks has been limited to 55 and 86 pitches respectively in his two starts back since returning. 

Give us Cincinnati with Luis Castillo (RHP - CIN) going at this price against Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs and it’s an auto-bet. In case you haven’t been following Luis Castillo or are unaware of how good he is, here’s why he’s worth betting on taking back a price: a 98 mph fastball, a killer changeup that stifles both lefties and righties, plus a wicked swing-and-miss slider. Not only does he fan 27% of the batters he faces, but he pairs it with a 59% ground ball rate. Add in a .169 BAA against and it’s a wonder that he’s not favored, let alone a dog in this price range. Castillo is showing all the ingredients of a burgeoning frontliner: premium velocity, two big secondary offerings, plenty of swing-and-miss, a top-flight groundball rate, and a solid walk rate. If we rip this ticket up, so be it but value plays don't get better. Incidentally, it’s worth noting that the Reds have Scooter Gennett back in the lineup and he makes a big difference. 

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