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Posted at 10:45 AM EST.

1:10 PM EST. Shane Bieber (RHP - CLE) is the owner of a so-so 4.12 ERA during the last 12 months but underneath that mark have been some of the best skills in the game: 10.6 K’s/9, 1.9 BB’s/9, 45% grounders, and an elite 3.09 xERA. His command sub-indicators give full support to them too with his 13.2% swing & miss rate and 65% first-pitch strike rate. Shane Bieber is a great pitcher but you know who else is great? Chris Sale and he and the Red Sox got crushed yesterday. Mike Clevinger is also great and he and the Tribe lost the first game of this series. Shane Bieber has eight wins in 18 starts because you need run support and bullpen support to win ball games. That makes the Twins a live dog every time they play.

Jose Berrios (RHP - MIN) faces a Cleveland lineup that has provided average production vs. RHP. In 14 innings vs. Cleveland, Berrios has struck out 16 Cleveland hitters while allowing one earned run. Like Bieber, Berrios has outstanding control by allowing just 1.8 BB’s/9. His first-pitch strike rate of 67% is also elite. If the Twins were in Minnesota and favored here against Bieber, the bet would be Cleveland because that would be the value play. The value play here is clearly the Twinkies.

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