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Posted at 10:45 AM EST.

2:20 PM EST. Jordan Lyles was knocked out in the first inning yesterday after allowing seven runs, which put the Pirates in a 7-0 hole before they came to bat. They lost 10-4 taking back a stupid price and that is being repeated today. Jose Quintana (LHP - CHC) cannot be this price against anyone, let alone the dangerous bats of the Pirates. Quintana has faced Pittsburgh twice already this year and although the results are good, Pittsburgh’s BABIP in those two games was .161. Quintana has 84 K’s in 101 frames with a 9% swing & miss rate. Quintana's embrace of his changeup is fading away, while his curveball has been ineffective for the fourth straight season. It leaves the southpaw focusing on his four-seamer to do the dirty work and the end result is unappealing (4.47 xERA, 5.14 xERA in his last five starts). A bet on Quintana is a risky one that will rely on a lot of luck and/or his curveball to return to form. Don't make that bet.

Trevor Williams (RHP - PIT) enjoyed a surprisingly effective 2018 campaign, buoyed by an eye-catching 1.82 ERA in 79 second half innings but it was heavily influenced by the combination of hit%/strand% and hr/f luck. Things haven’t gone as well in 2019, as evidenced by a 4.54 ERA through 71 innings but there are nothing but positives in his profile. A heightened focus on getting ahead in the count and pounding the strike zone has led to elite control. His swing & miss rate has surged from meager to average, but his strikeout rate has lagged behind (8.6 K’s/9), so there’s some potential upside there. It’s also worth noting that he has gained 1 mph in velocity (up to 91.4 mph) and opposing batters have chased his four-seam fastball outside the zone much more often in 2019 (up from 23% in 2018 to 33% this year). His month to month improving xERA column encapsulates how much his skillset has improved in 2019. Williams was never a good bet to replicate his 2018 success, as it was mainly the result of a confluence of good fortune masking a collection of substandard skills. However, the major strides he has made in 2019 with regard to first-pitch strikes/ball%/control and the potential strikeout gains hinted at by his growing swing & miss rate indicate that Williams is on the verge of taking a big step forward. Dude is absolutely worth a look, especially given the low price point. Price here on the Pirates is once again bordering on outrageous and we’re sticking with it.

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