San Francisco @ MILWAUKEE
San Francisco +150 over MILWAUKEE

Pinnacle +150 BETT365 +150 SportsInteraction +150 5DIMES +150 888Sport +150

Posted at 10:45 AM EST.

2:10 PM EST. We faded Jhoulys Chacin (RHP - MIL) in his last two games started, cashed both tickets and we’re not about to relent here. Chacin is pure garbage. This is a starter with 35 walks and 68 K’s in 78 innings to go along with one of the worst xERA’s in baseball. His line-drive rate of 27% is a bottom tier mark to go along with his other weak marks of 35% grounders, 40% fly-balls and an 8% swing & miss rate. Chacin enters this matchup with a 6.62 ERA in his last five games. During the week before the All-Star break, San Francisco was a top-five offense and they have scored 14 runs in the first two games of this series. Chacin has a 50% disaster start rate and he’s priced here like he’s Justin Verlander. Ridiculous. Dude has a dead arm.

Tyler Beede (RHP - SF) has walked 28 batters in 45 frames and comes in with a 5.64 ERA after eight starts and two relief appearances. However, he also has 43 K’s and a lot of upside. Tyler Beede comes at hitters with upwards of six different pitches. The best of these include a two-seam fastball, a cutter, a 12-to-6 curve, and a decent change. In his last start in San Diego he walked none over seven full frames and was brilliant. While none of his pitches are plus-plus offerings, the mix-and-match has served him well—when he's able to harness his control. Over 499 career minor league innings, Beede compiled a 4.11 ERA with progressive improvements year by year. Beede has an abundance of pitches and that makes him a rare bird that could end up thriving if he can throw strikes. He’s a former #1 pick that has a very good 68% first-pitch strike rate and a 13% swing & miss rate over his last five starts. Dude can pitch but the market believes he can’t. It’s also worth noting that Milwaukee’s lineup features plenty of free swinging bats. The Crew are overpriced here because Beede’s ERA is poor but we’re getting the superior pitcher here at a massively inflated price.

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Our Pick

San Francisco +150 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.00)

San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110