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Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

2:20 PM EST. Jordan Lyles (RHP - PIT) returned to the mound from a 10-day stint on the DL on June 29 and gave up three runs and five hits in six innings. Before the injury, Lyles had a three-start run that wasn’t pretty. Before that, he had five starts in a row that were pretty. Overall, he has a 3.71 ERA (4.12 xERA) and 1.22 WHIP in 74 innings. That’s his story of inconsistency this year but this wager has nothing to do with getting behind Lyles.

Once again we get an inflated price on the Pirates and once again, it must be played. It’s tough to get excited about the 35-year-old Jon Lester (LHP - CHC). Of the 82 qualified starters, his swing and miss rate is in the third tier and has been on a four-year decline. Lester’s 93 K’s in 94 innings does not have the support of his 9% swing & miss rate (7% last five games). His batted ball profile has changed since his first full season with the Cubs with his groundball rate dropping each season (49% to 47% to 46% to 44% this year) with his home run rate, unsurprisingly, heading the other way. Lester has good control but he’s a downward trending pitcher that is overpriced and facing a Pirates’ squad that is quite good versus lefties.

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