San Francisco @ MILWAUKEE
San Francisco +115 over MILWAUKEE

Pinnacle +115  BETT365 +110 SportsInteraction +110 5DIMES +111 888Sport +110

Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

7:15 PM EST. San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy confirmed that LHP Madison Bumgarner (arm) will be able to make his first start after the All-Star break today. The team had the flexibility to push his start back if the swelling in his left arm was slow to subside but all systems are go. Bumgarner was spotted wearing a compression sleeve after the game Saturday, July 6, in which he was struck by a line drive off the bat of St. Louis Cardinals SS Paul DeJong. There is little to add here. His X-rays were negative, and the always-game lefty may not be what he was in his peak years, but his 2019 skills match up favorably to his career marks and his current 9.3 K’s/9 and 13% swing & miss rate are his best since 2016.

Zachary Davies was the 4th pick in the 26th round (785 overall) in the 2011 draft by the Baltimore Orioles. They didn’t even want him. This year, Zach Davies has started 18 games and is sitting on a 7-2 record with a 3.07 ERA. He’s the poster boy for luck playing a massive role in outcomes because his skills are as soft as the mud he walks on. Davies has changed up his pitch mix, relying almost exclusively on his sinker (63%) and change-up (27%). He's lost another tick on his sinker, which wasn't fast to begin with, and is having a hard time missing bats and inducing strikeouts.

He is again struggling to get first pitch strikes, and it seems to be catching up to him. as his control and 10% BB% are both at their highest levels since his 34 innings debut in 2015. On paper, however, he continues to thrive. He's been extremely fortunate this season with regards to his sky-high strand rate and low home run per fly ball rate, and he's gotten a little help from his hit rate as well. Davies is currently among the ERA leaders among starters but his skills tell a completely different story. The fact he's basically reduced his repertoire to two pitches, highlighted by a sinker that is bottom-five in the league in terms of velocity, doesn't provide too much reason for optimism, either. His ERA/xERA discrepancy is massive (3.07 to 5.11) and is the largest among all qualified starters. Davies has 63 K’s and 30 walks in 97 innings with a 7% swing and miss rate to go along with a weak batted ball profile of 37% grounders, 29% line-drives and 33% fly-balls. His high wire act cannot last much longer and now he’s favored over MadBum and the heating up Giants. That cannot be.

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Our Pick

San Francisco +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)