Atlanta @ SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO -104 over Atlanta

Pinnacle -104 BET365 -110 SportsInteraction -105 5DIMES -105 888Sport -105 

Posted at 12:30 PM EST.

10:10 PM EST. If the Braves aren’t the sucker play of the day, we don’t know what is. Atlanta is having a great year with a 54-37 record and sitting in first place while the Padres are a .500 team and 14 games out of first. Atlanta has pedigree, being one of MLB’s most successful franchises over the past three decades while the Padres have been the exact opposite. Finally, Dallas Keuchel (LHP - ATL) is a former Cy Young winner that also has pedigree and that has now made four starts with good results since joining the Braves. By contrast, only hardcore baseball fans and some fantasy-league players have heard of Dinelson Lamet (RHP - SD). It would appear to us that the books are begging folks to bet the Braves at this seemingly bargain price. The public will be hammering the Braves so you probably want to wait until just before game time to bet San Diego. If you like the Braves, bet it now and you’ll easily “beat the closing line”.

Through his first four starts, Dallas Keuchel is barely striking out anyone (4.3 K’s/9, 8% swing & miss), though he's at least been able to counter that with good control and a 59% ground ball rate. Look, Keuchel is serviceable but he’s always at the mercy of BABIP. There will be some blowups for sure but more importantly, the books are taking a position here that Atlanta will get beat. We’re merely pointing out that Keuchel is risky.

Dinelson Lamet (elbow) was activated from the 60-day injured list Thursday, July 4. as anticipated, Lamet was recalled to start the July 4 matchup vs. the Dodgers and in that start he surrendered just three hits in five frames while striking out seven. Before being diagnosed with a torn UCL in spring 2018, Lamet had flashed promise in his 2017 rookie debut, whiffing 139 batters in just 114 innings. Over his final three rehab starts in the hitter-friendly PCL, Lamet struck out 19 batters in 15 frames while walking just four. He's a sleeper, he’s good and again, the books love him in this spot. That’s good enough for us. 

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Our Pick

SAN DIEGO -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110