Chicago @ CHICAGO WS
CHICAGO WS +104 over Chicago

Pinnacle +104 BET365 -105 SportsInteraction -105 5DIMES +100 888Sport -102

Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

7:15 PM EST. Lucas Giolito (RHP - CHW) gets a rematch against the Cubs, who roughed him up at Wrigley on the 19th of June on a day in which the wind was blowing out. That was the beginning of a run that saw Giolito face several formidable offenses: Yanks, Cubbies, Boston, and Minnesota consecutively, and his June stats or BPI’s didn't miss a beat.

Lucas Giolito is in the midst of a near-unprecedented turnaround. In 2018, the right-hander was one of the worst pitchers in baseball. This is not hyperbole. Out of 796 pitchers, Giolito ranked 795th in WARP at -2.5 (only Marco Estrada (-3.0) was worse). He also threw far more innings than anyone in the bottom 50. Most pitchers that bad don’t have that long of a leash, and even fewer enter the next season with a rotation spot still locked down, which is a testament to both the White Sox’ uncompetitive standing and their investment in his pedigree as a prospect — which they paid dearly for just a couple years prior.

While your average 24-year-old with 250 mostly very bad innings in the majors would likely find themselves toiling away at Triple-A, Giolito’s draft and prospect status granted him an extra life in the video game that is the major leagues. We looked it up, this was our report on Giolito when he arrived:

Lucas Giolito is one of the premier pitchers rising up through the ranks, with a ceiling that highlights his potential to round into one of the best arms in the game for many seasons to come.

Giolito wasn’t just a very good pitching prospect, but the very best pitching prospect in baseball, at least for a time and he was also given something evaluators don’t just throw around all willy-nilly:

“Even when factoring in all the uncertainty that comes with pitching prospects, and even with Tommy John surgery in his history, Giolito seemed like as much of a sure thing as any pitching prospect in recent history”.

We were touting this kid a couple of years ago and stuck with him through the rough times but he’s found his groove and it took a couple of years but it’s all legit. His 2.61 xERA backs it up, too and says he’s actually been a little better than his surface numbers thus far. His xERA ranks second in the American League behind only Chris Sale. While we understand that the South Side isn’t Boston, imagine if Chris Sale was a dog at home to Jon Lester (LHP - CHC). Frankly, this line is absurd.

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Our Pick

CHICAGO WS +104 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)

No Run in First Inning -105