St. Louis @ SAN FRANCISCO
St. Louis +116 over SAN FRANCISCO

Pinnacle +116 BET365 +105 SportsInteraction +105 5DIMES +106 888Sport +102

Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

10:05 PM EST. The Cardinals are heating up, which makes them a very appealing underdog. Hovering around .500 for the first half, St. Louis has won three in a row and four of five but perhaps more importantly is that they are finally starting to score some runs. The Cards have scored four runs or more in five straight and five runs or more in four of those. Give us three or more here and we like our chances.

The Giants are overpriced here for the obvious reason. Madison Bumgarner (LHP - SF) has massive pedigree and also appears to have stemmed the tide of his once declining skills, as his velocity has returned, along with his typical strong control and his swing & miss/strikeouts. He has also altered his pitch mix, boosting his four-seam fastball usage from 34% to 42% at the expense of the curve which is down from 22% to 13%. Given that his curve and change-up have induced a high percentage of groundballs throughout his career, it is no surprise that his batted ball profile has taken a hit. His 36%/26%/38% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates suggests there is potential trouble ahead. Furthermore, there is a good chance that the bullpens may decide this one and in that regard, we’re happy to take our chances with the underdog.

Armed with vast pitch mix (four over 20% usage), Miles Mikolas’ (RHP - ST. L) return to the majors was a resounding success. He combines impeccable control with a nice groundball tilt to get through lineups efficiently. Mikolas started the season slowly, but his skills have been creeping toward 2018 levels each month. The last one to snap back into form is his HR rate, but he’s only surrendered three jacks in his last six starts, which suggests that weakness is healing as well. Of course, facing the Giants in Oracle Park is perhaps the best possible matchup for HR avoidance, which gives him a leg up toward another good outing here. St. Lou is a live pooch to be sure.

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Our Pick

St. Louis +116 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.32)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110