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Posted at 1:00 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. Fact one is that Milwaukee is 19-24 on the road. Fact two is that Steven Brault’s (LHP - PIT) xERA since the beginning of May is far better than Zach Davies xERA over that same span. Let’s compare. Zach Davies has 59 K’s in 92 innings for a strikeout rate of five batters per nine innings. Of the 59 batter’s he’s struck out, 14 of those were one the opposition’s pitchers. Steven Brault has 49 K’s in 57 frames or a strikeout rate of 8 K’s/9. Brault has a swing and miss rate of 11% while Davies’ swing & miss rate is 6%. Steven Brault has a 53% groundball rate since he’s been a regular in the rotation. Zach Davies has a groundball rate of 33%. Those are the skills comparisons now let’s turn to the luck-driven factors. 

Zach Davies has a 81% strand rate this year while Brault’s strand rate is league average at 75%. In BABIP, Davies is .303, which isn’t extremely lucky but since so many balls are in play, it’s still lucky. Meanwhile, Brault’s BABIP is a very unlucky .323. Zach Davies is a lucky 7-2 in 17 starts. That he’s lost just two games all year is a minor miracle because he’s one of the worst starters in the game. We can assure you 100% that the Pirates will put the ball in play here more than the Crew will but what we cannot ensure is that those hard hit balls will find a hole. Once again, the Pirates are wrongly being billed as the underdog here and once again, we’re all over it. 

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