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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

7:10 PM EST. We faded Jhoulys Chacin (RHP - MIL) last game out, cashed the ticket and we’re not about to relent here. Chacin is pure garbage. This is a starter with 35 walks and 60 K’s in 72 innings to go along with one of the worst xERA’s in baseball. His line-drive rate of 25% is a bottom tier mark to go along with his other weak marks of 35% grounders, 40% fly-balls and an 8% swing & miss rate. To recap, Chacin will pitch at one of the smallest parks in the game and he’s going to give up hits, hard hits and fly-balls. Now combine it and you have hard-hit, fly-balls. If you do the math on Chacin, he’s not going to hurt your bankroll because you’ll never bet him again. Dude has a dead arm.

Sonny Gray (RHP - CIN) does not have a dead arm but what he does have is an elite groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split of 55%/17%/28%. That’s not a bad place to start when discussing a pitcher at Great American Ballpark. Gray also has 91 K’s in 82 innings and he’ll be facing a Brewers eight that strikes out more times than any team in the NL with the exception of the Padres. Furthermore, Cincinnati has won seven of Gray’s last eight starts and the Reds scored a combined 49 runs in support of Gray over those seven wins. Some pitchers are just slotted in the right spot, meaning they get run support all year and right now that slot belongs to Gray. By the way, the Reds are now just 5½-games back of the Crew for first place. Big series, big crowds and the Reds have a massive edge on the mound here. 

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