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Posted at 12:15 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. For whatever reason, the Pirates bats go cold when they face Milwaukee but they picked it up again last night by scoring a sick 18 runs in a pitchers park. Take out the series against the Crew and the Pirates scored double-digit runs (11, 14, 10 and 18) in four of their last five games. This is no fluke, friends. One through eight, this is the toughest group of hitters to get out that we have ever seen in Pittsburgh and without question one of the top lineups in the game but they’re priced daily like they’re the Giants and so we’re not going to relent in backing them until the market appreciates them. 

Once again, the Cubbies are the false favorite here, as Kyle Hendricks (RHP - CHC) comes off the 10-day injured list after he suffered a right shoulder impingement. Hendricks is good but he’s not unbeatable. He continues to stave off critics who think an implosion is coming due to his mid-80s velocity. His change-up remains his bread-and-butter and is showing no signs of losing its deception. His pinpoint control is legitimized by his first-pitch strike rate and by his 16 walks in 88 innings, so it's here to stay too. Hendricks’ xERA confirms his downside isn't steep, although that xERA is 4.20 this year and 4.42 over his last five before he hit the rack. 

For the Pirates, Joe Musgrove (RHP - PIT)) is up next. Musgrove has been able to throw gems in three of his seven starts at home this season. He imploded in May with a 8.10 ERA in six starts but rebounded in June in a big way with a 3.61/4.09 ERA/xERA split. Current Cubs have a combined 85 AB’s against Musgrove and they’re hitting .181 against him. Musgrove also comes into this start by having a 13/0 K/BB split over his last 13 frames covering two starts. Of course the Cubbies can win here and get to Musgrove but that’s of no concern, as we’ll continue to play the true value and let the chips fall where they may. Pittsburgh is once again that value.

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