San Francisco @ SAN DIEGO
San Francisco +140 over SAN DIEGO

Pinnacle +140 BET365 +135 SportsInteraction +140 5DIMES +128 888Sport

Posted at 12:15 PM EST.

10:10 PM EST. Another absurd line, as the Giants are starting to play some baseball. The Giants have been playing .500 ball for close to a month. They have also won three of four and scored 10 and 13 runs respectively over the past two games in two pitchers parks. When a team is seeing beach balls, they can’t wait to get back to the park and now they’ll face the sinking Matt Strahm (LHP - SD). 

Strahm has allowed exactly two jacks in each of his last six starts. Strahm throws 90 MPH on his best day and has a weak batted profile of 33% grounders, 23% line-drives and 44% fly-balls. Strahm gives up runs, jacks (16 HR’s allowed in 74 innings), hits and while he throws strikes, batters are going up there now and swinging instead of working the count. It’s working too, as Strahm ihas been getting whacked every time he’s taken the mound for close to five weeks now. 

Tyler Beede (RHP - SF) has walked 28 batters in 38 frames and comes in with a 6.45 ERA after seven starts and two relief appearances. However, he also has 39 K’s and a lot of upside. Tyler Beede has come at hitters with upwards of six different pitches. The best of these include a two-seam fastball, a cutter, a 12-to-6 curve, and a decent change. While none are plus-plus offerings, the mix-and-match has served him well—when he's able to harness his control. Over 499 career minor league innings, Beede compiled a 4.11 ERA with progressive improvements year by year. Beede has an abundance of pitches and that makes him a rare bird that could end up thriving if he can throw strikes. He’s a former #1 pick that has a very good 68% first-pitch strike rate and a 13% swing & miss rate over his last five starts. Dude can pitch but the market believes he can’t. It’s also worth noting that San Diego has struck out more times than any other team in the NL and they also swing at more pitches out of the zone than anyone else. They are precisely the type of team that a guy like Beede could thrive against. Nice overlay here. 

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Our Pick

San Francisco +140 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.80)

Kansas City +108 over Toronto
Seattle -1½ +150 over Texas