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Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

7:05 PM EST. As a team, the Pirates are hitting .264 while the Cubs are hitting .252. The Pirates offense ranks 6th in the league in striking out % while the Cubbies strike out far more often and rank 20th. Chicago hits more jacks but Pittsburgh’s PNC Park is well suited for the Pirates to do their thing better than it is for the Cubs to do theirs. Chicago is road chalk here because they have so much more market credibility than the Pirates and we have to try and take advantage. 

Trevor Williams (RHP - PIT) has allowed 11 earned runs (4 HR) with 11 K’s and 0 BB’s in 11.2 innings over two games since his return from a long stint on the DL. Now that he’s been back for a couple of starts with no issues, we’re going to trust him here. Williams has allowed multiple home runs in back-to-back starts, but a 0.8 hr/9 at home in his career makes it seem like it would be out of character if that trend continued. His 11% swing & miss rate this season is a career high and his pinpoint control (10 walks in 66 innings) is another positive to work with. Trevor Williams has a four-pitch mix that he’s used to keep hitters off balance, including these Cubs, as he started three games against them last year and posted a 2.55 ERA against them. 

For an organization known for its ability to draft and develop position players, the Cubs have had far more difficulty achieving the same vertical integration on the pitching side. Adbert Alzolay (RHP - CHC), the team’s no. 4 prospect entering the season, stands to be the first homegrown pitching prospect of note since Jeff Samardzija over a decade ago.

Signed for just $10,000 out of Venezuela as an 18-year-old in 2012, he’s progressed through injuries and a conservative handling to reach the majors without having ever thrown 100 pitches in a start, and pitching over 100 innings in a season just twice — the last in 2017. A lateral strain ended his 2018 campaign in late May, and he began 2019 in extended spring training building up arm strength.

Alzolay is not the biggest guy to toe the rubber, standing an even six feet on a lean frame, but he does have strong legs that generate a good amount of power when driving off the mound. The delivery is simple and repeatable, working quickly with tempo while lowering his walk rate and upping his strikeouts in Triple-A this season. He attacks the zone but has shown a propensity to favor his fastball to the arm-side of the plate, especially against right-handed hitters, and mixes in the off-speed pitches more versus lefties. The fastball has effective run to it, banking late it as runs into the mid-90s and with some life up in the zone. His curveball has more of a power break in the low 80s that can be inconsistent at times, but when paired with the velocity of the heater it’s a very tough pitch to handle. He does have a straight changeup that’s still a work in progress, but has some feel to it.

As mentioned earlier, Alzolay does not have a long track record of pitching deep into games or deep into a season, so it’s unknown what kind of limitations will be imposed by the club for this, his second career start at this level. Chances are great that he does not go past five innings. 

Last season, the Cubs toyed with the idea of bringing up Alzolay for a spot start as part of a doubleheader. Wanting to know more, we spent some time trying to provide the best analysis in case he did get the callup but that never happened. That blurb, if you will never saw the light of day but here’s the last sentence of it: thought I’d just share its closing sentence:

“As it stands now, it’s not a terribly inspiring profile, made less so by the likelihood that this is a spot start, and Alzolay will be on the train back to Iowa before Sunday morning.”

While the less-than-rosy sentiment might remain the same, Alzolay has been much better in 2019, providing some optimism for the Cubs. In six Triple-A starts, he fanned 46 hitters in 32 innings, while walking only six. Does he deserve to be road chalk? No, as his strand rate in his first 9 innings is 100% and his 0.00. Those aren’t typos.

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