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Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

1:05 PM EST. There are a lot of strange happenings or anomalies in baseball this year and such is the case with the Kansas City Royals. The Royals are 28-55, which is the second worst record in the majors but that record makes no sense whatsoever. Why doesn’t it make sense, you ask? For three reasons. 1), the Royals are first in the majors in stolen bases. 2), they are third in the majors in team defense (first in the AL) and 3), they are fourth in the majors in base hits with Runners in Scoring Position (RISP). Teams that excel in those three key categories should at least be close to .500 so one has to figure that a major correction to Kansas City’s record is forthcoming. This game is winnable to be sure.

Brad Keller (RHP - KC) was absolutely dominating the Indians through three full innings in his last start (3 IP - 2H - 0 ER- 4 K’s - 0 BB’s) before the rains came and delayed the game for a couple of hours. Keller did not return but figure him to be fresh and ready to go here. Over his last five starts, Keller has been tremendous with a BB/K split of 6/24 through 29 innings, a 3.72/3.66 ERA/xERA split and an elite 53% groundball rate. At 23, the 6'5, 230-pound righthander looks intimidating on the mound, but while his fastball sits in the mid-90s, he's hardly a strikeout machine. Keller's big weapon is his ability to induce grounders and he’s got the defense behind him to make it work. His strikeout rate is improving in a big way and has the support of his 13% swing and miss rate over his last five starts.

Aaron Sanchez was a +225 underdog in his last start against C.C. Sabathia and now he’s in the -130 range against a better pitcher than C.C. Incidentally, the Blue Jays scored eight runs in support of Sanchez but the Yankees scored 10 times. The game before that, the Jays scored six times in support of Sanchez but the Angels scored 11 times. Sanchez and the Blue Jays were at home that day against the Angels and were taking back +172. We’re pretty sure you get the point. Sanchez has walked 15 batters and struck out 13 over his last five starts covering 24 innings. Dude has a 6% swing and miss rate, can’t throw strikes and can’t hold five-run leads these days. Chances are he won’t have a lead today and will more likely be trailing throughout. K.C. had a two run lead late on Friday, a three run lead late yesterday and are 0-2 in this series. That likely changes today. Great value here.

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