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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

4:10 PM EST. The Rays played an 18-inning game on Thursday and looked somewhat lethargic last night in a 5-0 loss to these Rangers. Two days after that marathon and now the Rays are priced in this range? The price here dictates the play because it’s a 50/50 game and if we were to give an edge to anyone, it wouldn’t be the Rays. 

Tampa is going with a first time starter and while Brendan McKay (RHP - TB) comes highly touted, it’s still his MLB debut and everyone reacts differently. Furthermore, at this stage in his career, McKay’s single game career highs are six innings pitched, and 86 pitches thrown. The efficiency of his pitches allow for him to get deep into games, and while there is no reason to speculate he couldn’t go seven innings or 100 pitches, he hasn’t been allowed to go that far as of yet. The Rays are known for their conservative approach regarding bringing pitchers up too soon and given the fact the Rays are 1) desperate for innings today, and 2) have handled McKay with extreme care thus far, it would not be a surprise to see this debut being nothing more than an emergency spot start. 

A sturdy 6-foot-2, McKay has a thick lower half that is used to provide power off the rubber. The delivery is effortless and easily repeatable, and he’s very balanced as he transitions from drive leg to plant leg. He has a slight wrist wrap at the bottom of his pitching circle, but it helps hide the ball and is especially deceptive against left-handed hitters. The fastball sits in the low 90s but can top out at 94 if he reaches back for a little extra. He pounds away early and often the first time through the order, and then begins to look at his secondary offerings once the fastball is established. A 12-to-6 curveball is effective to both righties and lefties, and he’s able to throw for strikes early in the count. When hitters try to time up the heater, he can shift to a cutter in the upper 80s with good finish, and a changeup that is good against righties. McKay has little left to prove in the minors, forcing his way into each promotion. While there is an immediate need for this start, the likelihood of his debut was imminent regardless. Pairing precision command with nearly flawless mechanics and while we understand that he comes highly touted, 100’s of can’t-miss, highly touted first-timers have gotten destroyed at this level until they paid their dues. Bottom line is that a first-timer cannot be priced in this range against a team that wins as frequently as the Rangers are right now. 

Adrian Sampson (RHP - TEX) has notched 9 K’s/9 and outstanding control (six walks over has last 36 innings) and a 3.92 xERA over that same stretch. That and the Rays’ recent struggles (league-low .612 OPS last two weeks) make Sampson a true under-the-radar starter here. Frankly, this line is out of whack and if it loses, so be it.

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