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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

8:10 PM EST. We don’t like Daniel Mengden (RHP - OAK) and sometimes it’s hard to bet on a starter one doesn’t like (see Jake Arietta yesterday). However, this is more of a wager on Oakland plus a price to beat St. Louis and Adam Wainwright (RHP - ST. L). Furthermore, the Cardinals have made a slew of weak starters look like Sandy Koufax so we’ll live with whatever Mengden delivers. Mengden has only thrown 23 innings this year and pretty they are not.

Since the beginning of May, no team, not even Miami, has worse offensive outputs than the Cardinals. The Cards wOBA (Weighted On Base Average) is dead last among all 30 teams and only three teams have scored less runs. The Cards are bottom three in just about every offensive category, which makes them beatable every single day and it also makes them overpriced often because they are one of baseball’s blue bloods. Adam Wainwright has a 4.50 ERA through 14 starts, meaning that the Cardinals need five runs if Wainwright lives up to his form. Good luck to them. Wainwright’s xERA is right around that number too. In his last start, Wainwright’s swing & miss rate was 3%. Dude is now throwing an average of 90 MPH on his fastball and is finessing his way through lineups as opposed to being the power-pitcher that he once was. Maybe the Cards win and maybe they score some runs but no matter how you break it down, Oakland is more than capable of scoring more. Overlay.

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