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Posted at 3:00 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. If only reliability grades were the end-all, be-all ... but they're not. Unsavory trends in xERA, strikeouts, command and xERA are difficult to ignore but Jake Arietta continues to at least provide the Phillies wth a chance to win. We don’t like Arrieta but this is a decent spot for him because the opposing pitcher must be faded. With a reasonable workload and no age-related surprises, Arietta could reclaim some of his lost value. Still, this has nothing to do with backing him.

25-year-old Walker Lockett (RHP - NYM) got his first start against the Cubs last week and was pounded (6 runs in 2.3 innings). The 6'5", 225-pound former Padre is having an odd time of it in Triple-A Syracuse. Of the 101 batters he faced over 24.2 innings, he struck out only nine of them, for a dead-ball era strikeout rate of 3.3 K’s/9. Of course he's only walked four of those 101, for a decent command despite it all. He's simply getting the ball in play almost every AB, which is not good strategy against the Phillies. Good control numbers will help him in the majors, but lack of strikeouts and a groundball tilt will make demands on the defense. He has a three-pitch arsenal: a low-90s fastball, a curve and a change-up. Nothing truly plus for a pitcher who first reached Triple-A three years ago. He did have three starts for the Padres last year, with ugly results from striking out 12 of the 76 batters he faced (good) while unintentionally walking nine of them (bad) and giving up 22 hits (ugly).

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