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Posted at 12:10 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. We all know the deal with Aaron Sanchez (RHP – TOR). It’s quite possible and even likely that he gets knocked out of this game early because he’s just not the same pitcher as he was in 2016 when it looked like he was going to be stud for years to come. His 2017 was ruined by blisters and in 2018 he caught a finger in a suitcase in June and eventually had surgery on it in September. Amid the carnage, he’s walking more guys than any starter in baseball (45 walks in 79 innings) and has more walks (14) than K’s (10) over his last 22 innings. It’s bad but Sanchez is still throwing 94 MPH and inducing 50% grounders. More importantly, the risk is worth the reward because New York’s starter cannot be priced in this absurd range.  

C.C. Sabathia (LHP - NYY) is currently in the midst of his best month of the season from a skills perspective—compiling a 5.40 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 3.3 BB/s/9 and 23 strikeouts covering 22 innings over his last four games started. In other words, when he’s at his best, he’s allowing 1.57 baserunners per inning when the threshold for being a pitcher in serious trouble is anything above 1.30. C.C. averages 88 MPH now and while he has learned how to pitch with less velocity, he remains hittable, beatable and is always at the mercy of the strand rate and Batting Average of Balls in Play (BABIP) gods. All in all, Sabathia’s elevated hr/9 (2.1), combined with Yankee Stadium’s park factors (38/22% LHB/RHB HR), make this a risky spot regardless of the opponent. C.C. has benefited greatly from an 81% strand rate and .273 BABIP. 

We also like this spot for the Blue Jays after they went into Boston on the weekend and took two of three from the Red Sox while the Yankees were hosting the Astronauts in New York in a series that generated a playoff-like buzz around the city. Furthermore, the Blue Jays offense has come to life but regardless of all of that, C.C. Sabathia is priced like he’s Tanaka here when in fact, he's not even close.

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