N.Y Mets @ PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA -1½ +150 over N.Y Mets

Pinnacle -1½ +149 BET365 -1½ +150 SportsInteraction -1½ +145 5DIMES -1½ +146

Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. If you don’t like to spot 1½-runs, Philadelphia is still a bargain here at -127. We get 73 cents higher to spot an extra half run and we’re going to bite. It would appear that the market or oddsmakers are not buying Zach Eflin’s 2.83 ERA but we are. His xERA is 4.07 and the Phillies have lost five of Eflins’ last six starts but it was by no fault of Eflin's that he got little run support. Zach Eflin has a BB/K split of 9/26 over his last four starts covering 24 innings. His xERA over his last four starts is 3.26. Increased fastball velocity and added movement on his slider were keys to unlocking a higher strikeout rate last season then July blister problems and some 2nd half hr/f shifts knocked him off track. However, Eflin was so good when he was healthy that Philadelphia reportedly declined to trade him for Manny Machado. That speaks to his upside and now, for whatever reason, he's under the radar despite some excellent surface and under the hood stats.

Some pitchers hate pitching or fear pitching in certain parks and for Steven Matz (LHP – NYM), that park is Citizens Bank. Matz owns a 6.62 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, and 5.1 K’s/9 over 17.2 IP (three games started) at Citizens Bank Park in his career. He threw a disaster here on April 16th, and has a 6.21 overall ERA on the road. Furthermore, the Phillies makes tremendous contact against LHP (79%, top-10) and their RHB-heavy lineup could bode a massive problem to Matz. He’s allowed a 3.1 hr/9 to RHB on the road this season, and Citizens Bank Park offers a 25/24% HR boost to LHB/RHB over the last three years. Sign us up that Matz gets pounded here again.

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Our Pick

PHILADELPHIA -1½ +150 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.00)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110