Best Lines: Pinnacle +130 BET365 +125 SportsInteraction +130 5DIMES +125 888Sport +120

Posted at 11:25 PM EST.

1:35 PM EST. Whatever edge Steven Brault’s (LHP - PIT) deceptive delivery and arm slot gives him is being negated by his inability to master the strike zone, Brault comes in with some shaky numbers, which includes a 4.40 ERA and a disturbing 1.55 WHIP. However, the kid is being asked to start every five days and that decision to keep him in the rotation is starting to pay off. Brault had zero control issues in the minors and in fact, when he was called up in 2016, the scouting report said, “His mechanics are simple and repeatable and he can be effective with three above average pitches and excellent control (2.3 BB’s/9) over his minor league career. Brault has a BB/K split of 24/40 over 47 frames but he’s now taking his turn in the rotation the entire month so far and the results have been better. That said, this wager is more about value. The underrated Pirates are taking back the biggest inflated price on today’s board and if they lose, so be it.

Enter Joey Lucchesi (LHP - SD) and his 3.74 ERA after 14 starts. On paper, that looks pretty sweet but a closer look reveals that it’s looks better than it actually is. You see, Petco Park is considered to be the best pitcher’s park in MLB, where Joey Lucchesi has started nine of his 14 games, In five road starts, Lucchesi has a 5.88 ERA compared to a 2.70 ERA at home. Lucchesi is a starter that jumped from Double-A to the majors last season and the sum is better than the parts. He’s certainly not the first pitcher to leapfrog over Triple-A but he was a fourth round pick and it’s rare to see a fourth rounder make the jump and have so much success. Lucchesi has a deceptive delivery but MLB hitters make adjustments and they will or already have caught up to him. The lack of a third pitch increases his risk at prices like this and he’ll now face a Pirates nine can score and get base hits as well as any team in baseball. Big overlay.

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