Cincinnati @ MILWAUKEE
Cincinnati +110 over MILWAUKEE

Best Lines: Pinnacle +110 BET365 +105 SportsInteraction +105 5DIMES +105 888Sport +100

Posted at 12:45 PM EST.

4:10 PM EST. The Reds are hot while the Brewers are not and that alone makes the Red s a great play here with the superior starter going. Luis Castillo (RHP - CIN) continues to flash some of the most intriguing skills of any starting pitcher in the game. His approach in May featured tons of swings and misses (15.4%), which helped him rack up strikeouts at an elite rate (10.9/9). He also posted the highest groundball rate in the game that month (71%). The exit velocity he is allowing is one of the lowest in the game, and his ability to induce groundballs is reflected in the paltry 1.1 degree launch angle generated by his opponents. In addition, he continues to have one of the best change-ups around, and even his sinker became a whiff pitch for him in May. The missing piece is his wobbly control but Milwaukee swings at everything, which gives Castillo the green light here.

Jhoulys Chacin (RHP - MIL) was activated from the 10-day injured list on June 17 and we’re thrilled that he’s back and that he’s the favorite. Over his last two starts since returning, Chacin has walked 7 batters, allowed 12 hits and also allowed nine runs over 7.1 innings. His swing & miss rate this year is 6% and his xERA over his last two starts is 8.13 and over his last three starts, it’s even higher at 9.48. We get the hottest team in the NL at a price in perhaps the biggest pitching mismatch on the board. If you make one ply today, this should be it.

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Our Pick

Cincinnati +110 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.20)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110