Minnesota @ KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY +148 over Minnesota

Best Lines: Pinnacle +148 BET365 +145 SportsInteraction +145 5DIMES +145 888Sport +140

Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

8:15 PM EST. Jakob Junis (RHP - KC) is coming off of a rough start against the Twins where he allowed five hits, three walks, and a jack over 3.2 innings. That ugly pitching line five days ago makes the Twins very appealing here but that game was in Minnesota and rarely will a pitcher have a repeat of what transpired five days ago when facing the same team. In fact, it’s usually the opposite. In any event, Junis has a 5.33 ERA after 15 starts but his skills suggest he deserves a better fate. He has 76 K’s in 83 innings backed by a solid 10.5% swing and miss rate. His 63% first-pitch strike rate suggests his walk rate will improve dramatically. Jakob Junis has a 4.32 xERA over his last six starts but this is truly a play based on value only. Minnesota is hugely inflated here.

Martin Perez (LHP - MIN) is one of this year’s biggest surprises after years of being among the worst starters in the game. Perez also missed most of the first half in 2018 due to complications following off-season surgery on his non-throwing elbow. When he did return, the on-field results continued to go in the wrong direction. Since 2013, his pitiful skills and rising xERA meant nobody wanted him, not even the pitching desperate Rangers from which he came from. Then the Twinkies took a flyer on him.

Perez started the year in the pen and made three appearances before a rotation spot opened up. With nobody else to turn to, the Twins penciled in Perez and he’s been there ever since. In 12 starts and three relief appearances covering 77 innings, Perez has 74 K’s to go along with a 4.09 ERA. He’s also 7-3. Now,  because of those results and because it’s Minnesota v Kansas City, one will pay a seriously inflated premium to get behind the chalk here. Truth is, Perez is the same stiff he’s always been and it’s about to come crashing down on him. Perez is walking five batters per nine innings over his last six starts. His xERA over that span is over 5. Furthermore, the Royals have been killing the ball at home, with a .845 OPS, 151 PX (Power Index) .272 xBA, and 6.22 runs per game over the past month. In terms of overpriced starters, Perez is near the top of the list and therefore must be faded when he's priced this high on the road.

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Our Pick

KANSAS CITY +148 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.96)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110